The Louisiana flood - connecting the dots



©Frank J. Grass

As indicated in my previous post, I will endeavor to highlight a few cases of loss and damage, past and present, across the five geographical regions of the world. One of the main events that have occurred in the recent past is the flooding in Louisiana.

The floods

The month of August will perhaps be remembered by the residents of Louisiana, United States of America (USA), as one of the darkest months to have ever occurred. Described as possibly the worst disaster to ever happen in the U.S, termed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration termed it "a once-in-every-500-years event" - Louisiana flooding event is a clear manifestation of how unprecedented natural hazards can be. Many news outlets - including BBC, CNN, The Guardian, New York Times, among others - reported of how devastating this event, both to the lives and properties of Louisianans.

A state of devastation as household properties in Ascension Parish are destroyed due to floods ©Reauters

The statistics

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) records;

• 13 people died
• 200,000 people were relocated
• 60,646 houses were damaged
• More than 100,000 vehicles destroyed
• More than 20,000 businesses affected
• Roughly 10 billion dollars in economic losses

Other sources however indicate that approximately 507,495 people were either directly or indirectly affected - 11 per cent of Louisiana's population. Notably, less than 20% of all the damaged homes had been insured against such natural hazards hence the burden of 'restoring dignity' lay on the individuals, the government and humanitarian agencies like the Red Cross.

This is not the first flood event to occur in Louisiana. The University of Colorado's Dartmouth Flood Observatory database indicates that flood events of lower magnitude have occurred in Louisiana before. Between 28 August - 7 September 2012, the Hurricane Isaac led to massive flooding in both Southern Mississippi and Louisiana (83938.23 square kilometers) killing one person, displacing around 60,000 people and causing undocumented damages to properties. 

In March 2016, Louisiana was faced with flood as water rose above normal ruining around 1,200 homes and leading to at least 4 deaths and an evacuation of approximately 3,300 people. This resulted into economic losses of 1.3 billion dollars.

The Climate Science...

A recently published synopsis and attribution study done by Wang, Zhao and Gillies (2016) attributes the 'strange' flood to "...intense precipitation produced by a slow-moving tropical low pressure system interacting with an eastward-traveling baroclinic trough to the north". Vahedifard,AghaKouchak,and Jafari,(2016) argues that due to the recent high temperatures experienced in Louisiana, especially around July 2016, moisture built up in the atmosphere and in turn increased the risk of floods.

In my article on the emission gap I explained how the trend in emissions and subsequent global warming poses a risk to ecosystems in terms of losses and damages caused by climate extreme events. This article published on the guardian also explains in depth how climate change led to Louisiana floods.  as the Scientific American answers scientific questions on why, when, how etc

Thoughts..

There is a general agreement that the August flood in Louisiana did not come while ringing the bells loudly enough. No one was prepared for what transpired. When the level of awareness is near zero, people become more vulnerable and the risks of exposure  to hazards increase, resulting into devastating state of affairs, as statistics have shown. People's sense of belonging and endowments are eroded in a flash, and the level of helplessness gets heightened. When it remains business-as-usual in a climatic sense, then you can only expect the situation to worsen in future - for instance, a future clouded with more intense and frequent floods. Is it not surprising that the existing data shows an upward trend in the losses and damages that have occurred in Louisiana since 1980s due to floods. 

In summary, therefore, actions to mitigate against future should therefore be centered on the following;

• Reinforcing physical infrastructure
• Improving observation of weather related events through an integrated system
• Efficient communication of hazard warnings
• Rapid response and insurance schemes
• Efficient management of land use and land use changes
• Managing greenhouse gas emissions, both in the near and long term - this is a global commitment
• Managing people's attitudes towards weather-related information, and events.

What the gap in emissions means for human and ecological systems

Source: Reuters

Greenhouse gases?

Sources of emissions in 2010 by sector
Source: Environment Protection Agency based on data from the
Working Group III  of the fifth assessment report of the
International Panel on Climate Change 

These are gases that have the ability to trap heat and cause a 'greenhouse effect' potentially causing variations in atmospheric temperatures and affecting human and ecological systems. They include;

• Carbondioxide is the major greenhouse gas emitted mostly from exploitation of fossil fuels, agriculture, and land use changes and forestry
• Methane mainly from agricultural practices, burning of biomass, poor management of waste  and energy inefficiency
• Nitrous oxide primarily from fertilizers used in agricultural activities and burning of biomass.
• Fluorinated gases from consumption and production processes especially from industries and the refrigeration.

                                   

What is the current science saying?

The fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report clearly acknowledges that the earth system is warming unequivocally, increasing the global temperatures, and that there is a strong linkage to greenhouse gas emissions.The 2016 Emissions gap report, recently launched by the UN Environment, shows that the road to staying well below 2°C is still long. Despite commitments from governments, there is a steady increase in the amount of emissions especially from fossil fuels that account for approximately 68% of the emissions. In summary, 

• People already face rising seas, expanding desertification and coastal erosion. 
• There is a global upward trend in the emissions of greenhouse gases
• Majority of these gases emanate from industrial processes and combustion of fossil fuels
• Since 2000, the world ha experienced 10 warmest years
• The intended nationally determined contributions geared towards reducing emissions are still not consistent with the goal of limiting emissions to way below 2°C - if fully and unconditionally implemented, these contributions can only curb emissions to way below 3.2°C



Different scenarios for total global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 and 2030
Source: Emission Gap Report, 2016

What does the emissions trend mean for humans and ecosystems?

A correlation exists between the gap in emissions and the level of risk to impacts of climate change. The risks of, and costs associated with climate disaster continue to increase putting a strain on vulnerable populations across the world. According to the 2015 global assessment report (GAR), the increasing level of risks due to climate-related disasters are often fueled by variations in temperature, precipitation, and rise in sea levels. This scenario has led to losses mostly in small island developing states and other developing countries that are highly vulnerable but lack the capacity to respond or cope to disasters. People’s lives and ecosystems’ survival are intertwined in the carbon cycle, hence when one end of the system is perturbed, the multiplicity of impacts is felt.

Source: Stephanie Andrei

Bouwer 2013, finds a clear correlation in the projections of future extreme events losses and the changing climate (increased warming due to increased levels of greenhouse emissions), that is especially biased towards increased losses due to floods.  The study also attributes the frequency of prolonged dry seasons and sea level rise to the increasing levels of emissions. However, Knutti et. al 2016 argue that the relationship between increasing global temperatures and the ensuing impacts is not always linear and 'straightforward'. This study agrees with James et. al, 2014 arguing that there is a cloud of uncertainties in attributing anthropogenic emissions to climate losses and damages  mainly because evidence varies among sectors, countries and regions. Furthermore, the uncertainty occurs when there is a wide variation in terms of time, space and character of various impacts occurring at varying levels of climate change. Nonetheless, science, and the latest data especially from developing countries continues to make clear the fact the anthropogenic emissions are distablizing the climate system and causing disproportionate impacts on individuals, communities and ecosystems.

What needs to be done?

The emission gap report recommends that, to achieve the goal outlined in the Paris Agreement, deep emission cuts be effected prior to 2020, and further, lower emissions pathways be embraced by 2030 . As a result, strong and consistent actions are required from governments and all actors in terms of promoting energy efficient mechanisms, tapping into non-state actors’ contributions and aligning activities to sustainable development goals.

It is absolutely necessary that risks to climate losses and damages, resulting from increasing emissions, are drastically reduced at all level. Policy decisions need to be pegged on the knowledge of such risks especially in having a clear understanding of the relationship between global emissions, and the resulting impacts.

Can the New Urban Agenda reduce loss and damage in cities?

Good news?

So finally the New Urban Agenda has been adopted by countries adding onto the list of international agreements that have been reached within the last nearly 12 months! The recently celebrated first anniversary since the 2030 Agenda for sustainable development (SDGs) was adopted, the Paris Agreement on climate change that continues to be ratified by parties, and the Sendai Framework Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) 2015-2030. The New Urban Agenda outlines provisions that would ensure, among other things, integrated urban planning that includes climate change aspects.

Urban population at a glance…

"By 2050 the world urban population is expected to nearly double, making urbanization one of the 21st century’s most transformative trends."  

The distribution of the  regions' population from 1950–2010, with 2030 and 2050 projections are summarized below;

 Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA / CRED International Disaster Database as compiled in IFRC, 2010 

A few more facts from the UNHABITAT report…

• Urban population likely to double by 2050
• Roughly 7 out of every 10 urban dwellers are found in developing world accounting for 82% of the world population
• Cities in Africa among the fastest growing in the world
• Latin America is the most urbanized with 80% of population living in urban areas. This is expected to be 87% by 2050.
• European population increasing at an average of 0.67%
• Africa and Asia are ranked least urbanized despite the high urban population in urban areas.

How are cities vulnerable to loss and damage due to climate change?

The greenhouse gas emissions are highest in cities due to exponential growth in industrialization (hence intensive use of energy), human population and related activities.  If we treat cities as closed systems with inlets but no outlets, you can picture a situation where the system itself is overstretched to its limits. The unprecedented increase in urban population and the subsequent overutilization of resources, especially in least developing countries, by no means places enormous pressure on urban resources and the capacity of existing systems to cope or respond to any uncertainties.

UNHABITAT and International Federation of the Red Cross reports agree that cities, especially those that are unplanned, continue to be susceptible to natural disasters like flooding, extreme increase in temperature, drought and earthquakes. The table below summarizes the major losses and damages faced in some of cities around the world due to natural disasters.

Can the New Urban Agenda address loss and damage in cities?

Despite the fact that the New Urban Agenda is non-binding and lacks clear strategy of tracking the progress, a number of provisions address key climate change and DRR concerns. For instance, the agenda envisages

"cities and human settlements that;…adopt and implement disaster risk reduction and management, reduce vulnerability, build resilience and responsiveness to natural and man-made hazards, and foster mitigation and adaptation to climate change … protect, conserve, restore, and promote their ecosystems, water, natural habitats, and biodiversity, minimize their environmental impact, and change to sustainable consumption and production patterns."

Perhaps some of the great environmental scores of this agenda is that it acknowledges threats posed by climate change and its related risk, and recognizes that vulnerabilities vary depending on various demographic characteristics. The agenda commits to promoting resilience within cities and reducing GHG emissions in line with Sendai Framework and the Paris Agreement respectively, and further to support “adaptation plans, policies, programmes, and actions that build resilience of urban inhabitants”

For cities to thrive, the provisions in the agenda  need to be implemented by countries. The Sendai framework emphasizes that;

“More dedicated action needs to be focused on tackling underlying disaster risk drivers, such as the consequences of poverty and inequality, climate change and variability, unplanned and rapid urbanization, poor land management and compounding factors such as demographic change, weak institutional arrangements, non-risk-informed policies, lack of regulation and incentives for private DRR investment, complex supply chains, limited availability of technology, unsustainable uses of natural resources, declining ecosystems, pandemics and epidemics.”

However, the resilience of cities also go a step further. Childers et al, 2014 argue that there is need for transformative integration where urban design meets the ecological realities of the time. The authors believe that such a model will enhance resilience of urban dwellers in the face of climatic hazards and future uncertainties. Taking the case of Indian cities, for instance, the animation below summarizes the how cities can build resilience.