Showing posts with label Loss and Damage. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Loss and Damage. Show all posts

Friday, 6 January 2017

It is not all doom and gloom...


Where are we coming from?


I know most, if not all, of the past blog posts have painted a gloomy picture of state of the environment and human well-being but to understand where we are headed, it is always advisable that we look at where we have come from. As mentioned in the previous post, which summarized key losses and damages around the globe, this last blog post will endeavour to highlight "some of the interventions and responses that are being implemented/or should be implementation to enhance adaptation to climate-related disasters, build resilience, and promote environmental sustainability"

Anything to note?


On Wednesday this week, an article on the guardian documented how 50 billion US$ had been spent by insurers on natural-disaster related claims in 2016. Although the source and accuracy of the figure is not clear, it intimates that there were 'exceptional' flood events in 2016 that accounted for approximately 34% of all the losses up from last decade's avaerage of 21%. Most of this flood events (and storms), according to the article, were particularly common in Europe and accounted for 6 billion US$. Worse still, the December 2016 flooding in the United Kingdom was marked as the beginning of major annual floods. Earlier on, another article on the guardian detailed how indigenous people of Alaska are facing eminent threat to culture-erosion (language and hunting) as a result of the arctic ice loss. From these scenarios, we deduce that loss and damage goes beyond monetary costings to non-economic - as elaborated in my very first blog post.

The IPCC AR5 affirms that there has been increased global surface temperatures - 0.85°C  on average relative to pre-industrial records. In assessing "What the gap in emissions means for human and ecological systems", I highlighted the likely implications of such a trajectory, which, among other things will increase the risks of, and costs associated with climate disasters thereby straining vulnerable populations across the world. 

How can loss and damage to climate-related disasters be avoided?


It is worth noting that although it is critical to mitigate against any climate-related disasters in order to reduce loss and damage, there is high certainty that the climate change impacts will continue to take an upward linear trend in future. It is therefore imperative that different parties – decision/policy makers, stakeholders and different vulnerable group –  work on various adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies in order to deal with unavoidable losses and damages.  Options such as risk transfer; risk retention; migration; recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction, are crucial in reducing loss and damage from natural hazards. A number of strategies are further discussed;

Adaptation


Adaptation can be hazard-specific. For instance, in the case of drought adaptation strategies could include planting drought-resistant crops, harvesting water, managing soil fertility, diversifying livelihoods and voluntary migration based on the seasons. Measures for extreme temperatures include improving design of buildings and cities. Flood adaptation strategies generally involve building dams and diversions and moving settlements from coastlines and flood prone areas. 

Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EBA)


The idea behind EBA is that the various components within the ecosystem can be used to enhance adaptation thereby reducing risk and enhancing resilience to climate shocks.  In EBA, it is assumed that the ecosystems will be diverse and well managed in order for them to contribute towards climate change adaptation(Reid et al., 2009). For instance, Reid, 2016Jones et al., 2012 have documented the role of ecosystems; wetlands act as reservoirs especially for flood water,  mangroves and coral reefs have proven to be strongholds against storm surges, and well vegetated hills reduce landslides and erosion.

Community-based adaptation (CBA) 


With this approach, climate change interventions start at the community level and focus on immediate needs of vulnerable communities and how to address climate variability and change (Ensor and Berger, 2010). CBA looks at the potential of both local and scientific knowledge in addressing the vulnerabilities to disasters and any other development challenges hence the interventions are thought of as being community-centric.

Integrated Early warning systems  (EWS)


EWS have the potential to reduce the risks associated with extreme climate events, hence reduced loss and damage. The design of EWS needs to be wholesome – integrated, actionable and timely – in order to evoke early action.  A study conducted by UNEP in 2013 reinforces the need to ensure the needs of all vulnerable communities, irrespective of their socio-economic statuses -  are incorporated in the design of EWS.

Conclusion


To safeguard the environment and ensure human well-being, there is need to work towards reducing losses and damages. As the effects of climate change persist, ecosystems and the services they offer are put at risk. A better understanding of such impacts is needed by decision makers in order to design and implement risk management frameworks that are comprehensive and reliable. In quoting one of my statements when I unpacked loss and damage;
"Dealing with loss and damage substantially depends on enabling polices at all levels - sub-regional, regional and global. Among the major policy instruments that contribute towards addressing loss and damage are the Sendai Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction, the Paris Agreement, Sustainable Development Goals and the New Urban Agenda set to be agreed upon in Quito, Ecuador during the Habitat III Conference. We can all agree that in the end, its the actions taken by countries that will determine whether the human and ecological systems will withstand the loss and damage force" 

Its Bye for now....

Thank you for following me across the continents, in countries and cities/villages, as I painted the picture of natural disasters and their implications on the people and the planet. Lets meet again in future :)



2006-2015 Climate-related events in the five continents: who leads?


The last month of 2016 was dedicated to highlighting key occurrences in the five continents: Asia, the Americas, Europe, Oceania and Africa . There was a deliberate attempt to only focus on 5 key disaster - drought, flood, storm, extreme temperatures and wildfire in order to allow for inter-comparisons within and between continents. On why the focus is on decadal and not longer term periods like 100 years and over: perhaps it is safe to say that the main aim of the blog was to highlight variations in environmental changes and accompanying impacts on human systems at the global level, based on available and reliable data from EM Database.


Comparisons

In the period 2006-2015, floods were the most frequent in all the continents apart from the Oceania that more prone to storms. Although extreme temperatures are frequent in Europe, they seem to have a very low frequency in Africa, Americas and the Oceania. Due to the nature of these hazards, rapid and slow onset, the frequency at which they appear is different. 



Very high frequent
High frequency
Moderate Frequency
Low frequency
Very low frequency
Africa
Flood
Storm
Drought
Wildfire
Extreme temperature
Americas
Flood
Storm
Drought
Wildfire
Extreme temperature
Asia
Flood
Storm
Extreme temperature
Drought
Wildfire
Europe
Flood
Extreme temperature
Storm
Wildfire
Drought
Oceania
Storm
Flood
Wildfire
Drought
Extreme temperature
Frequency of  extreme climate events from 2006-2015 in the world's five continents 
(Source: EM-DAT Database, Accessed 3 January 2017)


Due to the nature and frequency of disasters occurring in different continents, the level of risk, impact and damage varies. Consequently, the number of fatalities and economic damages vary as shown in the figure below - highest number of fatalities in Asia (221,224) and lowest in the Oceania (1,165). Interestingly, the later has the highest cost of damage (890,759,581), perhaps due to the fact that most settlements in the Oceania are developed along the coastlines which are the most at risk from storms and floods (rapid onset disasters occurring frequently in the region). 


Number of deaths and economic costs of damages resulting from extreme climate events between 2006-2015 (Source: EM-DAT Database, Accessed 3 January 2017)


What next?

In the next and last post for the blog, I attempt to highlight some of the interventions and responses that are being implemented/or should be implementation to enhance adaptation to climate-related disasters, build resilience, and promote environmental sustainability. See you there... :)

Friday, 30 December 2016

Africa's climate disaster rhythms from 2006-2015: How good do they sound?


Do not call the forest that shelters you a jungle ~ African Proverb

Overview


Boasting as the second largest continent in size and population, Africa is home to approximately 1.2 billion people spread over 54 countries.  The location of the African continent – surrounded by the Mediterranean Sea, the Indian Ocean, and the Atlantic Ocean – exposes it to a mix of climates. Most of the Northern parts of the continent are deserts and arid or semi-arid regions, while the rest of the continent is a mix of savanna plains and rain-forest. Despite Africa's ecological richness and beautiful landscapes, the risk of fragmentation and degradation are apparent. A recent example is the receding lake Chad in the Sahel region.

The increasing population further poses a strain on the available resources in most of the countries. The African economies are heavily dependent on natural resources. In assessing the non-linearity in the effect of temperature on global economic production,  Burke, Hsiang and Miguel (2015) affirmed that by 2100, most African countries would be poorer than present if the rising temperatures and effects of climate change are not mitigated against. Perhaps the most important question is how can environmental sustainability and resilience be achieved in Africa amid the rising populations and persistent exposure to natural hazards?
                

Disaster Profile


Beyond the size, resource-richness and endearing beauty of the African continent, the the risk of occurrence and exposure to climatic events remain constant. The most prevalent natural disasters in Africa are the floods, storms, drought, wildlife and extreme temperatures (EM Database). The frequency of occurrence of these disasters has varied from 2006-2015 although in totality, the floods, storms and drought are common phenomena. 

Frequency of occurrence of natural disasters in Africa from 2016-2015 (Source of  data: EM DAT database)

Variation in occurrence of  disasters  (floods, storms, drought, extreme temperatures and wildfire) in Africa from 2006-2015 (Source of Data: EM Database)

Although flood is the most common natural hazard in Africa, there is a variation among countries in terms of prevalence. For instance, Kenya has experienced 28 floods within the 10 year period as compared to 1 flood event in Libya. Other Africa countries prone to floods - with 10 or more flood events - include Angola, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Burundi, Algeria, DR Congo, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, Tanzania, Burkina Faso, Mali, Sudan, Chad, Ghana and Morocco, in descending order.
Prevalence of flood events in various African countries from 2016-2015 (Source of  data: EM DAT database)





Flooding is mostly common in low elevation zones of Africa where, according to Kamal-Chaoui and Robert (2009), are inhabited by approximately 1-5 million people. A study by Di Baldassarre et al 2010  also found that the risk to floods in most African countries has increased due to intensive yet unplanned developments in flood-prone areas.


Between 2006-2015, droughts has occurred 5 times in Ethiopia and; 4 times in Kenya and Zimbabwe; 3 times in Burundi, Djibouti, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique and the Niger. The very nature of droughts - slow onset - means that a drought event can take longer to be manifested.



Implications


At 20,004 deaths between 2006-2015, droughts have caused the majority of natural disaster-related fatalities in Africa despite their low occurrence. The high numbers are due to the Somalia drought that led to the loss of approximately 20,000 lives, due to hunger and lack of water, leading to the highest number of total deaths from the five disasters as shown in the graph. The floods caused 25,360 deaths within the same period followed by storms (1,356) and wildfire (131). The figures below summarize the losses and damages from the disasters in question in Africa for the period 2006-2015.





Total occurrence of disasters (floods, storms, drought, extreme temperatures and wildfire) vs fatalities in Africa from 2006-2015 (Data from source: EM Database)

Total number of people affected from disasters (floods, storms, drought, extreme
temperatures and wildfire) in Africa between 2006-2015 (
Data from source: EM Database)
   
Total damage (x1000 US Dollars) resulting from disasters (floods, storms, drought, extreme
temperatures and wildfire)in Africa between 2006-2015 (
Data from source: EM Database)


Conclusion


The past rhythm of disasters in Africa is not so appealing to the ear after all. Can the future be any better? The impacts of climate change are projected to increase under business-as-usual scenario and this is bound to have implications across continents and regions. It is therefore safe to argue that with heightened level of exposure to the risks of natural disasters coupled with low adaptive capacity in Africa, climate change is set to increase vulnerability. It is also worth noting there are a number of concrete initiatives that have been rolled around out by countries and various agencies around the continent to reverse the current disaster trends, help communities adapt and build resilience. These responses will be discussed in the subsequent posts. Stay tuned.

Friday, 16 December 2016

Natural Disasters in Europe: A summary

From Asia 's hotpot to the journey through the Americas, this week's focus is on Europe! Kreibich et al 2014  argue that because of the changing climate, Europe will be faced with more impacts from natural disasters in the coming years.
“Climate change is one of the largest threats to human and ecosystem health (in Europe), reducing the supply of food and nutrition, causing premature deaths from extreme weather events and affecting vital ecosystems” UNEP, 2016.

  

Overview


Disaster type
Occurrence
Total deaths
Homeless
Total affected
Total damage
Drought
7
0
0
216194
6051573
Extreme temperature 
141
67819
0
621557
1932601
Flood
232
1069
53138
4066755
50978320
Storm
137
380
2963
986477
41061400
Wildfire
25
241
5692
1020865
8173274
Data Source: EM-DAT Database (Accessed 21 December 2016)

The main disasters in Europe are drought, extreme temperatures (heat waves), flood, storms and wildfire. Based on the data from the EM DAT database, the frequency of these hazards within the past decade shows variations in length and magnitude- floods are a common phenomena followed by extreme temperatures and storms respectively. As shown in the table, most deaths have resulted from heatwaves and floods. However, significant damages result from floods and storms with the largest number of people being affected from the former. The same scenario is observed in Asia and the Americas which are more impacted by floods and storms.

Frequency of disasters in Europe from 2005-2015
Data Source: EM-DAT Database (Accessed 21 December 2016)


Floods and heat waves


Rojas et al. 2012 assessed the impacts of river floods in Europe, based on both the adaptation and non-adaptation trajectories, and found a projected increase in the number of affected population. The study also projected that, if adaptation measures are not put in place, the number of damages resulting from river floods will reach €98 billion per year by 2080. Conversely, the damages will be lower in the phase of adaptation to as much as €53 billion per year by the same period. However, Rojas and colleagues note that there are wider variations at country level with countries like the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, Romania and the United Kingdom set to incur high damages. Variations are also evident at country level with some parts of a given country being more at risk to river floods than the rest of the country. A study by Alfieri et al. 2015 affirms that the frequency and magnitude of the floods in Europe will increase with “flood peaks with return periods above 100 years are projected to double in frequency within 3 decades”. Other studies have also assessed the impact of sea level rise in Europe and the resulting impact due to coastal flooding.


The 2015 summer in Europe was marred with extreme temperatures, with the highest temperature in Berlin reaching 37.9°C, London at 36.7°C, and Paris at 39.7°C. The surface area temperature anomaly over central Europe for the period was 2.40°C above the 1964–1993 mean. This level of warming closely matched with the 2003 summer heat wave that lead to massive loss of lives. In assessing the chances of extreme temperatures since the 2003 European heat wave, Christidis et al. 2015 found that the occurrence of heat wave events is now twice a decade as compared to the early 2000s where heat waves occurred once a decade.

Focus on the top 5...



Occurrence of natural disasters in European countries between 2005-2015
Data Source: EM-DAT Database (Accessed 21 December 2016)








Number of people affected by the natural disasters between 2005-2015
Data Source: EM-DAT Database (Accessed 21 December 2016)
Death resulting from natural disasters, 2005-2015
Data Source: EM-DAT Database (Accessed 21 December 2016)

Cost of damages resulting from natural disasters, 2005-2015
Data Source: EM-DAT Database (Accessed 21 December 2016)

Friday, 9 December 2016

The journey through the Americas

Picking up from the previous post where I briefly profiled disasters in the Asia Pacific region for the past 10 years, this week I choose to shift my attention to the Americas. Last month, I highlighted a case of Louisiana flood that led to loss of 13 lives and destruction of properties and businesses, and just recently, the world witnessed as Haiti was hit by a major storm - Hurricane Mathew - causing a great deal of devastation. NASA termed the Hurricane as "the strongest storm to hit the Caribbean nation in more than 50 year". But this is just a fraction of the cumulative number of disasters that have occurred in the region, and their accompanying impacts on human and ecological systems.

Hurricane Mathew
© NASA

Overview


The World Bank estimates the population of the Americas at approximately 1 billion people . The countries in this region heavily rely on primary production and exploitation of natural resources for exports. The region boasts of an incredibly rich biodiversity despite continued loss of large forest cover with decreasing deforestation. Aide and colleagues argue that such contrasting dynamics present a level of uncertainty in terms of future alterations resulting from continued land use. Furthermore, such dynamics are highly linked to external factors like population trends and the demand for products (both for internal use and for exports).  As a result of the existing pressures, large biomes like the Amazon forest, are significantly reducing in size. In assessing the "spatial patterns and statistical relationships between deforestation and changes in pasture and soybean areas", Barona et al. 2010 found a correlation between the high rate of deforestation and increasing  pasture and soyabean grounds.

Extreme climate events


Data from EM DAT database indicates that a number of extreme events (drought, extreme temperature, flood, storms and wildfires) in the Americas have occurred in the past decade, although at varying frequency and level of intensity. Of the analysed events, floods and storms tend to occur more times in a years compared to drought, heatwaves and wildfire.

Frequency of extreme events in the Americas, 2006-2015 (Source of data: EM-DAT Database).
The major disasters in the Americas region are Storms and floods , having occurred 315 and 353 times respectively from 2006-2015. A 2014 World Bank report  titled, "Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal" estimated that a approximately 29 million people in the region live in low-lying coastal zones that increases their risk coastal flooding and storm surges. In 2015, for instance, Hurricane Erika killed 37 people in Dominica and caused losses of over 228 million dollars (nearly half of Dominica's annual GDP). Other major hurricanes to hit the region include Hurricane Galveston in 1990, Andrew in 1992, Katrina in 2005, Wilma in 2005, Andres in 2009, Felicia in 2009, Sandy in 2012, Patricia in 2015 among others.

Drought
Extreme temperature
Flood
Storm
Wildfire
Occurrence
47
38
353
315
42
Total death
4
2,132
6,270
5,515
133
Injured
0
24,262
11,962
9,053
763
Homeless
0
5,247
445,506
282,246
33,901
Total Affected
47,398,840
1,611,939
40,753,477
105,78,466
902,680
Total damage(1,000 USD )
39,303,400
5,194,000
65,134,735
276,715,736
12,136,400
Losses and damages between 2006-2015 (Source of data: EM-DAT Database)

Floods have led to a majority of deaths in the past 10 years followed by storms and extreme events. As a result, an incredibly huge number of people were affected. Although droughts are seen to cause insignificant deaths in the region, the number of people affected tend to be higher compared to those affected by other disasters. More people are also affected by floods and storms. For the United States alone, the National Weather Services' statistics show that floods have caused higher fatalities on average compared to any other disasters.


© NOAA

Conclusion


The frequency and intensity of extreme events in the Americas have been on the increase in the past decade with steep trends in areas where storms and floods are common phenomena. The scenario is likely to worsen in the face of climate change as global warming, coupled with the effect of El Nino Southern Oscillation, increases the risk of more severe weather. As a result, increased losses and damages are bound to be encountered, if adequate measures will not be put in place.