Asia in the past decade: A hotpot of disasters

A coastline in Kuakata, Bangladesh.
©Stephanie Andrei

“The Asia and the Pacific region has experienced some of the most damaging disasters in recent decades, with alarming consequences for human welfare. At the same time, the climate in the region has been changing. Temperatures have been higher, on average, and also more variable and more extreme. Rainfall has also been more variable and more extreme.” (Thomas et al. 2013)

Overview

Asia boasts of a huge population, with the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP)statistics indicating 4.5 billion people in 2016 – almost 60 per cent of world’s population. China and India account for  over half the region’s population.

This huge population, coupled with unprecedented change in environment and climate continue to increase the frequency and severity of intense natural disasters. This is the reality for Asia region, where people continue to battle with hydro-meteorological and climatological like flood, storms, droughts, heatwaves, among others.  The AR5 IPCC confirms that Asia experiences a series of floods, drought and heatwaves. 

Source: AR5 IPCC

An analysis of data (2006-2015) from the comprehensive EMDAT database  shows that storms, floods and extreme temperatures (heat waves) have been the most frequent natural disasters in Asia for the past decade accounting for approximately 221,011 deaths, 1,131,734,595 people affected and 

US$ 359 billion in damages.

Frequency of disasters

The frequency of disasters have varied annually within the last decade. Data from the EMDAT database shows floods and tropical cyclones have been more frequent in Asia but on non-linear scale. For instance, cases of floods were lowest in 2008 when tropical cyclones were highest. The occurrence of forest fires and Tsunamis remain low. 

Frequency of disasters in Asia (Source: EM-DAT Database, Accessed 1 December 2016)

Severity of disasters

There is a variation terms of severity of these disasters with a bit of correlation between frequency and level of damages. Although tropical cyclones do not occur as frequent as floods, the number of deaths caused by the former are almost 4 times the latter. As shown in the first table, between 2006-2016, the number of lives lost through storms are 167, 800 as compared to 44,284 deaths by floods. The level of losses and damage vary based on intensity of the event, the level of preparedness among people, and the response capacity.

Disasters in Asia between 2006-2015  and the impacts (Source: EM-DAT Database, Accessed 1 December 2016)

Conclusion

There exists no homogeneity among countries within the region. Although the statistics presented above are cumulative, different countries in Asia region are prone to different hazards depending on their geographical local and their capacity to prepare and respond to various disasters. The Philippines leads in the number of natural disasters especially floods and tropical cyclones, followed by China, India, and Indonesia.

In May 2016, for instance, an article on the CNN  website highlighted the devastating impact of heat waves in India where temperatures in Phalodi were soaring at 51 degrees Celsius. During the same period, a road in New Delhi had melted  at 43 degrees Celsius. 

Some of the progress in Asia towards addressing various threats to natural disasters include, but not limited to, enhancing early warning systems, mainstreaming adaptation into national, sub-regional and regional plans as evident in their respective  intended nationally determined contributions. Emphasizes should also be placed on enhancing end-o-end communication between responsible agencies and the vulnerable groups of people, reinforcing insurance mechanisms that can compensate citizens in the event of losses and damages, and promoting reforestation programmes across the region. 

Thanks to global warming, the arctic is seriously melting away

The Louisiana flood - connecting the dots



©Frank J. Grass

As indicated in my previous post, I will endeavor to highlight a few cases of loss and damage, past and present, across the five geographical regions of the world. One of the main events that have occurred in the recent past is the flooding in Louisiana.

The floods

The month of August will perhaps be remembered by the residents of Louisiana, United States of America (USA), as one of the darkest months to have ever occurred. Described as possibly the worst disaster to ever happen in the U.S, termed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration termed it "a once-in-every-500-years event" - Louisiana flooding event is a clear manifestation of how unprecedented natural hazards can be. Many news outlets - including BBC, CNN, The Guardian, New York Times, among others - reported of how devastating this event, both to the lives and properties of Louisianans.

A state of devastation as household properties in Ascension Parish are destroyed due to floods ©Reauters

The statistics

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) records;

• 13 people died
• 200,000 people were relocated
• 60,646 houses were damaged
• More than 100,000 vehicles destroyed
• More than 20,000 businesses affected
• Roughly 10 billion dollars in economic losses

Other sources however indicate that approximately 507,495 people were either directly or indirectly affected - 11 per cent of Louisiana's population. Notably, less than 20% of all the damaged homes had been insured against such natural hazards hence the burden of 'restoring dignity' lay on the individuals, the government and humanitarian agencies like the Red Cross.

This is not the first flood event to occur in Louisiana. The University of Colorado's Dartmouth Flood Observatory database indicates that flood events of lower magnitude have occurred in Louisiana before. Between 28 August - 7 September 2012, the Hurricane Isaac led to massive flooding in both Southern Mississippi and Louisiana (83938.23 square kilometers) killing one person, displacing around 60,000 people and causing undocumented damages to properties. 

In March 2016, Louisiana was faced with flood as water rose above normal ruining around 1,200 homes and leading to at least 4 deaths and an evacuation of approximately 3,300 people. This resulted into economic losses of 1.3 billion dollars.

The Climate Science...

A recently published synopsis and attribution study done by Wang, Zhao and Gillies (2016) attributes the 'strange' flood to "...intense precipitation produced by a slow-moving tropical low pressure system interacting with an eastward-traveling baroclinic trough to the north". Vahedifard,AghaKouchak,and Jafari,(2016) argues that due to the recent high temperatures experienced in Louisiana, especially around July 2016, moisture built up in the atmosphere and in turn increased the risk of floods.

In my article on the emission gap I explained how the trend in emissions and subsequent global warming poses a risk to ecosystems in terms of losses and damages caused by climate extreme events. This article published on the guardian also explains in depth how climate change led to Louisiana floods.  as the Scientific American answers scientific questions on why, when, how etc

Thoughts..

There is a general agreement that the August flood in Louisiana did not come while ringing the bells loudly enough. No one was prepared for what transpired. When the level of awareness is near zero, people become more vulnerable and the risks of exposure  to hazards increase, resulting into devastating state of affairs, as statistics have shown. People's sense of belonging and endowments are eroded in a flash, and the level of helplessness gets heightened. When it remains business-as-usual in a climatic sense, then you can only expect the situation to worsen in future - for instance, a future clouded with more intense and frequent floods. Is it not surprising that the existing data shows an upward trend in the losses and damages that have occurred in Louisiana since 1980s due to floods. 

In summary, therefore, actions to mitigate against future should therefore be centered on the following;

• Reinforcing physical infrastructure
• Improving observation of weather related events through an integrated system
• Efficient communication of hazard warnings
• Rapid response and insurance schemes
• Efficient management of land use and land use changes
• Managing greenhouse gas emissions, both in the near and long term - this is a global commitment
• Managing people's attitudes towards weather-related information, and events.

Humanizing the realities of climate change

© Asha Sitati

When we humanize climate change through highlighting people's lived experiences, we start to appreciate the science behind different scenarios. In avast world where different communities are accustomed to their unique cultures and ways of living, you can imagine how much of the reading, watching or listening you would need to put up with in order to try and understand the rich diversity. Climate change, however, presents a story that would resonate well with different groups of people.

Although there is a likelihood of varying levels of vulnerabilities and exposure to climate risks, most similar vulnerable groups like farmers, women, disabled, and elderly, tend to find themselves in more or less similar circumstances. The variations among such groups are bound to occur relative to their varying socio-economic dimensions, access to climate information, literacy levels, among others. 

©  Zinta Zommers

In the video below, which I helped produce as part of UN Environment Climate Warning Project, I tell the story of Florida, a widow and farmer in Turkana County of Kenya whose only source of livelihood (farming) is under constant threat from floods and drought. She is extremely vulnerable but still hopes that reliable climate information would enable her to act on time and avert any potential disasters. Florida is one among the many women in marginalized areas of the world who worry about feeding their families in the midst of all the uncertainties. 

In my subsequent posts, I will delve more into some case studies from around the world that are a reflection of the changing environment and subsequent loss and damage. I will highlight the interlinked issues that catalyze vulnerabilities and risks of exposure to climate extreme events.

How has the changing environment and climate affected you or your community?

What the gap in emissions means for human and ecological systems

Source: Reuters

Greenhouse gases?

Sources of emissions in 2010 by sector
Source: Environment Protection Agency based on data from the
Working Group III  of the fifth assessment report of the
International Panel on Climate Change 

These are gases that have the ability to trap heat and cause a 'greenhouse effect' potentially causing variations in atmospheric temperatures and affecting human and ecological systems. They include;

• Carbondioxide is the major greenhouse gas emitted mostly from exploitation of fossil fuels, agriculture, and land use changes and forestry
• Methane mainly from agricultural practices, burning of biomass, poor management of waste  and energy inefficiency
• Nitrous oxide primarily from fertilizers used in agricultural activities and burning of biomass.
• Fluorinated gases from consumption and production processes especially from industries and the refrigeration.

                                   

What is the current science saying?

The fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report clearly acknowledges that the earth system is warming unequivocally, increasing the global temperatures, and that there is a strong linkage to greenhouse gas emissions.The 2016 Emissions gap report, recently launched by the UN Environment, shows that the road to staying well below 2°C is still long. Despite commitments from governments, there is a steady increase in the amount of emissions especially from fossil fuels that account for approximately 68% of the emissions. In summary, 

• People already face rising seas, expanding desertification and coastal erosion. 
• There is a global upward trend in the emissions of greenhouse gases
• Majority of these gases emanate from industrial processes and combustion of fossil fuels
• Since 2000, the world ha experienced 10 warmest years
• The intended nationally determined contributions geared towards reducing emissions are still not consistent with the goal of limiting emissions to way below 2°C - if fully and unconditionally implemented, these contributions can only curb emissions to way below 3.2°C



Different scenarios for total global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 and 2030
Source: Emission Gap Report, 2016

What does the emissions trend mean for humans and ecosystems?

A correlation exists between the gap in emissions and the level of risk to impacts of climate change. The risks of, and costs associated with climate disaster continue to increase putting a strain on vulnerable populations across the world. According to the 2015 global assessment report (GAR), the increasing level of risks due to climate-related disasters are often fueled by variations in temperature, precipitation, and rise in sea levels. This scenario has led to losses mostly in small island developing states and other developing countries that are highly vulnerable but lack the capacity to respond or cope to disasters. People’s lives and ecosystems’ survival are intertwined in the carbon cycle, hence when one end of the system is perturbed, the multiplicity of impacts is felt.

Source: Stephanie Andrei

Bouwer 2013, finds a clear correlation in the projections of future extreme events losses and the changing climate (increased warming due to increased levels of greenhouse emissions), that is especially biased towards increased losses due to floods.  The study also attributes the frequency of prolonged dry seasons and sea level rise to the increasing levels of emissions. However, Knutti et. al 2016 argue that the relationship between increasing global temperatures and the ensuing impacts is not always linear and 'straightforward'. This study agrees with James et. al, 2014 arguing that there is a cloud of uncertainties in attributing anthropogenic emissions to climate losses and damages  mainly because evidence varies among sectors, countries and regions. Furthermore, the uncertainty occurs when there is a wide variation in terms of time, space and character of various impacts occurring at varying levels of climate change. Nonetheless, science, and the latest data especially from developing countries continues to make clear the fact the anthropogenic emissions are distablizing the climate system and causing disproportionate impacts on individuals, communities and ecosystems.

What needs to be done?

The emission gap report recommends that, to achieve the goal outlined in the Paris Agreement, deep emission cuts be effected prior to 2020, and further, lower emissions pathways be embraced by 2030 . As a result, strong and consistent actions are required from governments and all actors in terms of promoting energy efficient mechanisms, tapping into non-state actors’ contributions and aligning activities to sustainable development goals.

It is absolutely necessary that risks to climate losses and damages, resulting from increasing emissions, are drastically reduced at all level. Policy decisions need to be pegged on the knowledge of such risks especially in having a clear understanding of the relationship between global emissions, and the resulting impacts.

Dancing for environmental change and climate action



David Katoatau dances after his last weight-lifting attempt
Photo credit: Stoyan Nenov / Reuters

Weight-lifter turned dancer

You probably heard of or read about David Katoatau who danced during the recent Rio Olympics to let the whole world know about his country (Kiribati)’s plight. His somewhat well-crafted moves are shown in the video below.

Unlike the usual victory dances we are used to watching in most Olympics, David danced even after failing at his third and last weightlifting attempt. This must have sounded like the most absurd reaction to 'failure'.

Problem-Induced dance?

It later turned out that the dance was actually for a noble cause. Just last year, David made a passionate appeal through a letter to the nations of the worlds to save his beloved country of Kiribati.

The republic of Kiribati, which constitutes 33 atolls, is ranked by United Nations among the least developed countries of the world, and hailed as the only country in the pacific that spans all the hemispheres – North, South, West and East. The latest data (2015) from World Bank shows that its population is approximately 112, 423 and it continues to grow at an average of 1.8 per cent per year, down from 2.2 per cent in 2008.Due to the dominance of atolls in Kiribati, the ecological and human systems are highly sensitive to any changes in the environment.  The growing population immensely relies on ecosystem services especially those derived from the sea like fishing and tourism, as source of livelihood. The video below summarizes the plight of Kiribati.

How many more dances?

The Pacific Climate Change Science Program 2014 report documented observations and projections for Kiribati; 

• Temperatures will continue to rise and warming is highly likely to hit a record 1.2 degrees by 2030
• In a scenario of increased greenhouse gas emissions, most models project an increase in the long-term average rainfall
• General increase in extreme temperatures, precipitation and drought (medium confidence)
• Increased acidification as a result of the increased concentration of carbon-dioxide in the atmosphere and subsequent warming of the oceans
• Very high confidence for projected rise in sea level especially in the 21st century
• Spatial variations in projected wind-waves

In agreeing with the above projections, Wyett,2014 suggests that an 'escape route' grounded on a number of policy options should be established. The author also proposes planned migration to nearby countries like Australia and New Zealand need, population regulation, preservation of the national heritage, and mobilization of funds.  These suggestions are consisted with Donner and Webber, 2014 's recommendations who underscores the need for periodical review of decisions that are backed up with reliable data, observations and predictions.

"I beg the countries of the world to see what is happening to Kiribati. The simple truth is that we do not have the resources to save ourselves. we will be the first to go. It will be the extinction of a race. Open your eyes and look to the other low lying level islands around the Pacific - they will soon fall with us. "David Katoatau, 2015.

Can the New Urban Agenda reduce loss and damage in cities?

Good news?

So finally the New Urban Agenda has been adopted by countries adding onto the list of international agreements that have been reached within the last nearly 12 months! The recently celebrated first anniversary since the 2030 Agenda for sustainable development (SDGs) was adopted, the Paris Agreement on climate change that continues to be ratified by parties, and the Sendai Framework Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) 2015-2030. The New Urban Agenda outlines provisions that would ensure, among other things, integrated urban planning that includes climate change aspects.

Urban population at a glance…

"By 2050 the world urban population is expected to nearly double, making urbanization one of the 21st century’s most transformative trends."  

The distribution of the  regions' population from 1950–2010, with 2030 and 2050 projections are summarized below;

 Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA / CRED International Disaster Database as compiled in IFRC, 2010 

A few more facts from the UNHABITAT report…

• Urban population likely to double by 2050
• Roughly 7 out of every 10 urban dwellers are found in developing world accounting for 82% of the world population
• Cities in Africa among the fastest growing in the world
• Latin America is the most urbanized with 80% of population living in urban areas. This is expected to be 87% by 2050.
• European population increasing at an average of 0.67%
• Africa and Asia are ranked least urbanized despite the high urban population in urban areas.

How are cities vulnerable to loss and damage due to climate change?

The greenhouse gas emissions are highest in cities due to exponential growth in industrialization (hence intensive use of energy), human population and related activities.  If we treat cities as closed systems with inlets but no outlets, you can picture a situation where the system itself is overstretched to its limits. The unprecedented increase in urban population and the subsequent overutilization of resources, especially in least developing countries, by no means places enormous pressure on urban resources and the capacity of existing systems to cope or respond to any uncertainties.

UNHABITAT and International Federation of the Red Cross reports agree that cities, especially those that are unplanned, continue to be susceptible to natural disasters like flooding, extreme increase in temperature, drought and earthquakes. The table below summarizes the major losses and damages faced in some of cities around the world due to natural disasters.

Can the New Urban Agenda address loss and damage in cities?

Despite the fact that the New Urban Agenda is non-binding and lacks clear strategy of tracking the progress, a number of provisions address key climate change and DRR concerns. For instance, the agenda envisages

"cities and human settlements that;…adopt and implement disaster risk reduction and management, reduce vulnerability, build resilience and responsiveness to natural and man-made hazards, and foster mitigation and adaptation to climate change … protect, conserve, restore, and promote their ecosystems, water, natural habitats, and biodiversity, minimize their environmental impact, and change to sustainable consumption and production patterns."

Perhaps some of the great environmental scores of this agenda is that it acknowledges threats posed by climate change and its related risk, and recognizes that vulnerabilities vary depending on various demographic characteristics. The agenda commits to promoting resilience within cities and reducing GHG emissions in line with Sendai Framework and the Paris Agreement respectively, and further to support “adaptation plans, policies, programmes, and actions that build resilience of urban inhabitants”

For cities to thrive, the provisions in the agenda  need to be implemented by countries. The Sendai framework emphasizes that;

“More dedicated action needs to be focused on tackling underlying disaster risk drivers, such as the consequences of poverty and inequality, climate change and variability, unplanned and rapid urbanization, poor land management and compounding factors such as demographic change, weak institutional arrangements, non-risk-informed policies, lack of regulation and incentives for private DRR investment, complex supply chains, limited availability of technology, unsustainable uses of natural resources, declining ecosystems, pandemics and epidemics.”

However, the resilience of cities also go a step further. Childers et al, 2014 argue that there is need for transformative integration where urban design meets the ecological realities of the time. The authors believe that such a model will enhance resilience of urban dwellers in the face of climatic hazards and future uncertainties. Taking the case of Indian cities, for instance, the animation below summarizes the how cities can build resilience.

Unpacking Loss and Damage due to Climate Change

It is no longer news that the Climate Change trajectory is incredibly unpleasant and scary. The human and ecological systems around the world are faced with constant perturbations as a result of the changing climate. As pointed out in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report(AR5), the global surface temperatures have been on the rise since 19^th century, with the 2000’s being the warmest years on record. Just recently, the atmosphere entered into an unfamiliar territory where the level of carbon dioxide (CO2) hit a record 400 parts per million in 4 million years. 

The results of such changes are further seen and felt in the day to day life. The risk of occurrence, frequency and intensity of extreme climate events like drought, heavy precipitation, floods and heat waves continue to be on the rise. The increasing climatic risks further and constantly expose vulnerable human and ecological systems to loss and damage. 

A boy quenching his thirst in Turkana, 
one of the arid areas in Kenya.

 What is Loss and Damage?

The recently released United Nations (UN) Environment report defines Loss and Damage as “the adverse effects of climate-related stressors on natural and human systems that cannot be, or have not been, avoided through mitigation or managed through adaptation efforts”.  The report extensively outlines a few case studies on loss and damage due to extreme weather events in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Americas. These are just but a tip of the iceberg – cases of loss and damage due to climate change and spread wide and deep. Verheyen (2012) argues that while mitigation and adaptation remain the most important actions for preventing future adverse effects, researchers, practitioners and policy-makers have realized that future losses and damages may be unavoidable. Furthermore, research has revealed that despite the on-going mitigation efforts, limits to adaptation are already being reached.

In highlighting the Local-level evidence of loss and damage from nine vulnerable countries, Warner and van der Geest (2013) conclude that loss and damage occurs beyond adaptation – either when adaptation measures are insufficient, not implemented, or impossible to implement in order to avoid the impacts of climate change; or when adaption measures themselves have costs that cannot be recovered, or in turn make people more vulnerable. It is also worth noting that loss and damage has two distinct faces – economic and non-economic losses – with the former referring to the loss of resources, goods and services that are commonly traded in markets due to their monetary value, and the later referring to those losses that are not commonly traded in markets, for example, loss of life, livelihood, territory, cultural heritage, biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Where it all began...

Loss and damage as a concept emerged from the international negotiations that resulted in the establishment of the UNFCCC back in 1991, when Vanuatu, on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), made a proposal for an international insurance mechanism to help them deal with future losses associated with sea level rise. Unfortunately, the proposed mechanism was not incorporated into the UNFCCC as the negotiations focused mainly on mitigation. However, following the findings from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment in 2007 indicating that mitigation and adaptation alone cannot avoid all the impacts of climate change, the concept of loss and damage was then introduced in the 13^th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties in 2007, in the context of disaster reduction strategies. The Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) on Loss and Damage was then established in 2013 to address the many unresolved issues around the concept. The Paris Agreement adopted in December 2015 recognizes the importance of averting, minimizing and addressing loss and damage due to climate change through close collaboration between the Warsaw International Mechanism and relevant entities.

Dr Saleemul Huq talks about Loss and Damage and the “Road to Paris”

The policy environment

Dealing with loss and damage substantially depends on enabling polices at all levels - sub-regional, regional and global. Among the major policy instruments that contribute towards addressing loss and damage are the Sendai Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction, the Paris Agreement, Sustainable Development Goals and the New Urban Agenda set to be agreed upon in Quito, Ecuador during the Habitat III Conference. We can all agree that in the end, its the actions taken by countries that will determine whether the human and ecological systems will withstand the loss and damage force.

What next?

This blog is an assessment towards a Module in MSc Climate Change (GEOG3057: Global Environmental Change). In the subsequent posts I will endeavor to document cases, news and analysis of loss and damage issues around the world in the context of climate change. Keep reading