Natural Disasters in Europe: A summary

From Asia 's hotpot to the journey through the Americas, this week's focus is on Europe! Kreibich et al 2014  argue that because of the changing climate, Europe will be faced with more impacts from natural disasters in the coming years.

“Climate change is one of the largest threats to human and ecosystem health (in Europe), reducing the supply of food and nutrition, causing premature deaths from extreme weather events and affecting vital ecosystems” UNEP, 2016.

  

Overview

Disaster type	Occurrence	Total deaths	Homeless	Total affected	Total damage
Drought	7	0	0	216194	6051573
Extreme temperature	141	67819	0	621557	1932601
Flood	232	1069	53138	4066755	50978320
Storm	137	380	2963	986477	41061400
Wildfire	25	241	5692	1020865	8173274

Data Source: EM-DAT Database (Accessed 21 December 2016)

The main disasters in Europe are drought, extreme temperatures (heat waves), flood, storms and wildfire. Based on the data from the EM DAT database, the frequency of these hazards within the past decade shows variations in length and magnitude- floods are a common phenomena followed by extreme temperatures and storms respectively. As shown in the table, most deaths have resulted from heatwaves and floods. However, significant damages result from floods and storms with the largest number of people being affected from the former. The same scenario is observed in Asia and the Americas which are more impacted by floods and storms.

Frequency of disasters in Europe from 2005-2015
Data Source: EM-DAT Database (Accessed 21 December 2016)

Floods and heat waves

Rojas et al. 2012 assessed the impacts of river floods in Europe, based on both the adaptation and non-adaptation trajectories, and found a projected increase in the number of affected population. The study also projected that, if adaptation measures are not put in place, the number of damages resulting from river floods will reach €98 billion per year by 2080. Conversely, the damages will be lower in the phase of adaptation to as much as €53 billion per year by the same period. However, Rojas and colleagues note that there are wider variations at country level with countries like the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, Romania and the United Kingdom set to incur high damages. Variations are also evident at country level with some parts of a given country being more at risk to river floods than the rest of the country. A study by Alfieri et al. 2015 affirms that the frequency and magnitude of the floods in Europe will increase with “flood peaks with return periods above 100 years are projected to double in frequency within 3 decades”. Other studies have also assessed the impact of sea level rise in Europe and the resulting impact due to coastal flooding.

The 2015 summer in Europe was marred with extreme temperatures, with the highest temperature in Berlin reaching 37.9°C, London at 36.7°C, and Paris at 39.7°C. The surface area temperature anomaly over central Europe for the period was 2.40°C above the 1964–1993 mean. This level of warming closely matched with the 2003 summer heat wave that lead to massive loss of lives. In assessing the chances of extreme temperatures since the 2003 European heat wave, Christidis et al. 2015 found that the occurrence of heat wave events is now twice a decade as compared to the early 2000s where heat waves occurred once a decade.

Focus on the top 5...

Occurrence of natural disasters in European countries between 2005-2015
Data Source: EM-DAT Database (Accessed 21 December 2016)

Number of people affected by the natural disasters between 2005-2015
Data Source: EM-DAT Database (Accessed 21 December 2016)

Death resulting from natural disasters, 2005-2015
Data Source: EM-DAT Database (Accessed 21 December 2016)

Cost of damages resulting from natural disasters, 2005-2015
Data Source: EM-DAT Database (Accessed 21 December 2016)

The journey through the Americas

Picking up from the previous post where I briefly profiled disasters in the Asia Pacific region for the past 10 years, this week I choose to shift my attention to the Americas. Last month, I highlighted a case of Louisiana flood that led to loss of 13 lives and destruction of properties and businesses, and just recently, the world witnessed as Haiti was hit by a major storm - Hurricane Mathew - causing a great deal of devastation. NASA termed the Hurricane as "the strongest storm to hit the Caribbean nation in more than 50 year". But this is just a fraction of the cumulative number of disasters that have occurred in the region, and their accompanying impacts on human and ecological systems.

Hurricane Mathew
© NASA

Overview

The World Bank estimates the population of the Americas at approximately 1 billion people . The countries in this region heavily rely on primary production and exploitation of natural resources for exports. The region boasts of an incredibly rich biodiversity despite continued loss of large forest cover with decreasing deforestation. Aide and colleagues argue that such contrasting dynamics present a level of uncertainty in terms of future alterations resulting from continued land use. Furthermore, such dynamics are highly linked to external factors like population trends and the demand for products (both for internal use and for exports).  As a result of the existing pressures, large biomes like the Amazon forest, are significantly reducing in size. In assessing the "spatial patterns and statistical relationships between deforestation and changes in pasture and soybean areas", Barona et al. 2010 found a correlation between the high rate of deforestation and increasing  pasture and soyabean grounds.

Extreme climate events

Data from EM DAT database indicates that a number of extreme events (drought, extreme temperature, flood, storms and wildfires) in the Americas have occurred in the past decade, although at varying frequency and level of intensity. Of the analysed events, floods and storms tend to occur more times in a years compared to drought, heatwaves and wildfire.

Frequency of extreme events in the Americas, 2006-2015 (Source of data: EM-DAT Database).

The major disasters in the Americas region are Storms and floods , having occurred 315 and 353 times respectively from 2006-2015. A 2014 World Bank report  titled, "Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal" estimated that a approximately 29 million people in the region live in low-lying coastal zones that increases their risk coastal flooding and storm surges. In 2015, for instance, Hurricane Erika killed 37 people in Dominica and caused losses of over 228 million dollars (nearly half of Dominica's annual GDP). Other major hurricanes to hit the region include Hurricane Galveston in 1990, Andrew in 1992, Katrina in 2005, Wilma in 2005, Andres in 2009, Felicia in 2009, Sandy in 2012, Patricia in 2015 among others.

	Drought	Extreme temperature	Flood	Storm	Wildfire
Occurrence	47	38	353	315	42
Total death	4	2,132	6,270	5,515	133
Injured	0	24,262	11,962	9,053	763
Homeless	0	5,247	445,506	282,246	33,901
Total Affected	47,398,840	1,611,939	40,753,477	105,78,466	902,680
Total damage(1,000 USD )	39,303,400	5,194,000	65,134,735	276,715,736	12,136,400

Losses and damages between 2006-2015 (Source of data: EM-DAT Database)

Floods have led to a majority of deaths in the past 10 years followed by storms and extreme events. As a result, an incredibly huge number of people were affected. Although droughts are seen to cause insignificant deaths in the region, the number of people affected tend to be higher compared to those affected by other disasters. More people are also affected by floods and storms. For the United States alone, the National Weather Services' statistics show that floods have caused higher fatalities on average compared to any other disasters.

© NOAA

Conclusion

The frequency and intensity of extreme events in the Americas have been on the increase in the past decade with steep trends in areas where storms and floods are common phenomena. The scenario is likely to worsen in the face of climate change as global warming, coupled with the effect of El Nino Southern Oscillation, increases the risk of more severe weather. As a result, increased losses and damages are bound to be encountered, if adequate measures will not be put in place. 

Asia in the past decade: A hotpot of disasters

A coastline in Kuakata, Bangladesh.
©Stephanie Andrei

“The Asia and the Pacific region has experienced some of the most damaging disasters in recent decades, with alarming consequences for human welfare. At the same time, the climate in the region has been changing. Temperatures have been higher, on average, and also more variable and more extreme. Rainfall has also been more variable and more extreme.” (Thomas et al. 2013)

Overview

Asia boasts of a huge population, with the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP)statistics indicating 4.5 billion people in 2016 – almost 60 per cent of world’s population. China and India account for  over half the region’s population.

This huge population, coupled with unprecedented change in environment and climate continue to increase the frequency and severity of intense natural disasters. This is the reality for Asia region, where people continue to battle with hydro-meteorological and climatological like flood, storms, droughts, heatwaves, among others.  The AR5 IPCC confirms that Asia experiences a series of floods, drought and heatwaves. 

Source: AR5 IPCC

An analysis of data (2006-2015) from the comprehensive EMDAT database  shows that storms, floods and extreme temperatures (heat waves) have been the most frequent natural disasters in Asia for the past decade accounting for approximately 221,011 deaths, 1,131,734,595 people affected and 

US$ 359 billion in damages.

Frequency of disasters

The frequency of disasters have varied annually within the last decade. Data from the EMDAT database shows floods and tropical cyclones have been more frequent in Asia but on non-linear scale. For instance, cases of floods were lowest in 2008 when tropical cyclones were highest. The occurrence of forest fires and Tsunamis remain low. 

Frequency of disasters in Asia (Source: EM-DAT Database, Accessed 1 December 2016)

Severity of disasters

There is a variation terms of severity of these disasters with a bit of correlation between frequency and level of damages. Although tropical cyclones do not occur as frequent as floods, the number of deaths caused by the former are almost 4 times the latter. As shown in the first table, between 2006-2016, the number of lives lost through storms are 167, 800 as compared to 44,284 deaths by floods. The level of losses and damage vary based on intensity of the event, the level of preparedness among people, and the response capacity.

Disasters in Asia between 2006-2015  and the impacts (Source: EM-DAT Database, Accessed 1 December 2016)

Conclusion

There exists no homogeneity among countries within the region. Although the statistics presented above are cumulative, different countries in Asia region are prone to different hazards depending on their geographical local and their capacity to prepare and respond to various disasters. The Philippines leads in the number of natural disasters especially floods and tropical cyclones, followed by China, India, and Indonesia.

In May 2016, for instance, an article on the CNN  website highlighted the devastating impact of heat waves in India where temperatures in Phalodi were soaring at 51 degrees Celsius. During the same period, a road in New Delhi had melted  at 43 degrees Celsius. 

Some of the progress in Asia towards addressing various threats to natural disasters include, but not limited to, enhancing early warning systems, mainstreaming adaptation into national, sub-regional and regional plans as evident in their respective  intended nationally determined contributions. Emphasizes should also be placed on enhancing end-o-end communication between responsible agencies and the vulnerable groups of people, reinforcing insurance mechanisms that can compensate citizens in the event of losses and damages, and promoting reforestation programmes across the region. 

Thanks to global warming, the arctic is seriously melting away

The Louisiana flood - connecting the dots



©Frank J. Grass

As indicated in my previous post, I will endeavor to highlight a few cases of loss and damage, past and present, across the five geographical regions of the world. One of the main events that have occurred in the recent past is the flooding in Louisiana.

The floods

The month of August will perhaps be remembered by the residents of Louisiana, United States of America (USA), as one of the darkest months to have ever occurred. Described as possibly the worst disaster to ever happen in the U.S, termed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration termed it "a once-in-every-500-years event" - Louisiana flooding event is a clear manifestation of how unprecedented natural hazards can be. Many news outlets - including BBC, CNN, The Guardian, New York Times, among others - reported of how devastating this event, both to the lives and properties of Louisianans.

A state of devastation as household properties in Ascension Parish are destroyed due to floods ©Reauters

The statistics

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) records;

• 13 people died
• 200,000 people were relocated
• 60,646 houses were damaged
• More than 100,000 vehicles destroyed
• More than 20,000 businesses affected
• Roughly 10 billion dollars in economic losses

Other sources however indicate that approximately 507,495 people were either directly or indirectly affected - 11 per cent of Louisiana's population. Notably, less than 20% of all the damaged homes had been insured against such natural hazards hence the burden of 'restoring dignity' lay on the individuals, the government and humanitarian agencies like the Red Cross.

This is not the first flood event to occur in Louisiana. The University of Colorado's Dartmouth Flood Observatory database indicates that flood events of lower magnitude have occurred in Louisiana before. Between 28 August - 7 September 2012, the Hurricane Isaac led to massive flooding in both Southern Mississippi and Louisiana (83938.23 square kilometers) killing one person, displacing around 60,000 people and causing undocumented damages to properties. 

In March 2016, Louisiana was faced with flood as water rose above normal ruining around 1,200 homes and leading to at least 4 deaths and an evacuation of approximately 3,300 people. This resulted into economic losses of 1.3 billion dollars.

The Climate Science...

A recently published synopsis and attribution study done by Wang, Zhao and Gillies (2016) attributes the 'strange' flood to "...intense precipitation produced by a slow-moving tropical low pressure system interacting with an eastward-traveling baroclinic trough to the north". Vahedifard,AghaKouchak,and Jafari,(2016) argues that due to the recent high temperatures experienced in Louisiana, especially around July 2016, moisture built up in the atmosphere and in turn increased the risk of floods.

In my article on the emission gap I explained how the trend in emissions and subsequent global warming poses a risk to ecosystems in terms of losses and damages caused by climate extreme events. This article published on the guardian also explains in depth how climate change led to Louisiana floods.  as the Scientific American answers scientific questions on why, when, how etc

Thoughts..

There is a general agreement that the August flood in Louisiana did not come while ringing the bells loudly enough. No one was prepared for what transpired. When the level of awareness is near zero, people become more vulnerable and the risks of exposure  to hazards increase, resulting into devastating state of affairs, as statistics have shown. People's sense of belonging and endowments are eroded in a flash, and the level of helplessness gets heightened. When it remains business-as-usual in a climatic sense, then you can only expect the situation to worsen in future - for instance, a future clouded with more intense and frequent floods. Is it not surprising that the existing data shows an upward trend in the losses and damages that have occurred in Louisiana since 1980s due to floods. 

In summary, therefore, actions to mitigate against future should therefore be centered on the following;

• Reinforcing physical infrastructure
• Improving observation of weather related events through an integrated system
• Efficient communication of hazard warnings
• Rapid response and insurance schemes
• Efficient management of land use and land use changes
• Managing greenhouse gas emissions, both in the near and long term - this is a global commitment
• Managing people's attitudes towards weather-related information, and events.

Humanizing the realities of climate change

© Asha Sitati

When we humanize climate change through highlighting people's lived experiences, we start to appreciate the science behind different scenarios. In avast world where different communities are accustomed to their unique cultures and ways of living, you can imagine how much of the reading, watching or listening you would need to put up with in order to try and understand the rich diversity. Climate change, however, presents a story that would resonate well with different groups of people.

Although there is a likelihood of varying levels of vulnerabilities and exposure to climate risks, most similar vulnerable groups like farmers, women, disabled, and elderly, tend to find themselves in more or less similar circumstances. The variations among such groups are bound to occur relative to their varying socio-economic dimensions, access to climate information, literacy levels, among others. 

©  Zinta Zommers

In the video below, which I helped produce as part of UN Environment Climate Warning Project, I tell the story of Florida, a widow and farmer in Turkana County of Kenya whose only source of livelihood (farming) is under constant threat from floods and drought. She is extremely vulnerable but still hopes that reliable climate information would enable her to act on time and avert any potential disasters. Florida is one among the many women in marginalized areas of the world who worry about feeding their families in the midst of all the uncertainties. 

In my subsequent posts, I will delve more into some case studies from around the world that are a reflection of the changing environment and subsequent loss and damage. I will highlight the interlinked issues that catalyze vulnerabilities and risks of exposure to climate extreme events.

How has the changing environment and climate affected you or your community?

What the gap in emissions means for human and ecological systems

Source: Reuters

Greenhouse gases?

Sources of emissions in 2010 by sector
Source: Environment Protection Agency based on data from the
Working Group III  of the fifth assessment report of the
International Panel on Climate Change 

These are gases that have the ability to trap heat and cause a 'greenhouse effect' potentially causing variations in atmospheric temperatures and affecting human and ecological systems. They include;

• Carbondioxide is the major greenhouse gas emitted mostly from exploitation of fossil fuels, agriculture, and land use changes and forestry
• Methane mainly from agricultural practices, burning of biomass, poor management of waste  and energy inefficiency
• Nitrous oxide primarily from fertilizers used in agricultural activities and burning of biomass.
• Fluorinated gases from consumption and production processes especially from industries and the refrigeration.

                                   

What is the current science saying?

The fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report clearly acknowledges that the earth system is warming unequivocally, increasing the global temperatures, and that there is a strong linkage to greenhouse gas emissions.The 2016 Emissions gap report, recently launched by the UN Environment, shows that the road to staying well below 2°C is still long. Despite commitments from governments, there is a steady increase in the amount of emissions especially from fossil fuels that account for approximately 68% of the emissions. In summary, 

• People already face rising seas, expanding desertification and coastal erosion. 
• There is a global upward trend in the emissions of greenhouse gases
• Majority of these gases emanate from industrial processes and combustion of fossil fuels
• Since 2000, the world ha experienced 10 warmest years
• The intended nationally determined contributions geared towards reducing emissions are still not consistent with the goal of limiting emissions to way below 2°C - if fully and unconditionally implemented, these contributions can only curb emissions to way below 3.2°C



Different scenarios for total global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 and 2030
Source: Emission Gap Report, 2016

What does the emissions trend mean for humans and ecosystems?

A correlation exists between the gap in emissions and the level of risk to impacts of climate change. The risks of, and costs associated with climate disaster continue to increase putting a strain on vulnerable populations across the world. According to the 2015 global assessment report (GAR), the increasing level of risks due to climate-related disasters are often fueled by variations in temperature, precipitation, and rise in sea levels. This scenario has led to losses mostly in small island developing states and other developing countries that are highly vulnerable but lack the capacity to respond or cope to disasters. People’s lives and ecosystems’ survival are intertwined in the carbon cycle, hence when one end of the system is perturbed, the multiplicity of impacts is felt.

Source: Stephanie Andrei

Bouwer 2013, finds a clear correlation in the projections of future extreme events losses and the changing climate (increased warming due to increased levels of greenhouse emissions), that is especially biased towards increased losses due to floods.  The study also attributes the frequency of prolonged dry seasons and sea level rise to the increasing levels of emissions. However, Knutti et. al 2016 argue that the relationship between increasing global temperatures and the ensuing impacts is not always linear and 'straightforward'. This study agrees with James et. al, 2014 arguing that there is a cloud of uncertainties in attributing anthropogenic emissions to climate losses and damages  mainly because evidence varies among sectors, countries and regions. Furthermore, the uncertainty occurs when there is a wide variation in terms of time, space and character of various impacts occurring at varying levels of climate change. Nonetheless, science, and the latest data especially from developing countries continues to make clear the fact the anthropogenic emissions are distablizing the climate system and causing disproportionate impacts on individuals, communities and ecosystems.

What needs to be done?

The emission gap report recommends that, to achieve the goal outlined in the Paris Agreement, deep emission cuts be effected prior to 2020, and further, lower emissions pathways be embraced by 2030 . As a result, strong and consistent actions are required from governments and all actors in terms of promoting energy efficient mechanisms, tapping into non-state actors’ contributions and aligning activities to sustainable development goals.

It is absolutely necessary that risks to climate losses and damages, resulting from increasing emissions, are drastically reduced at all level. Policy decisions need to be pegged on the knowledge of such risks especially in having a clear understanding of the relationship between global emissions, and the resulting impacts.

Dancing for environmental change and climate action



David Katoatau dances after his last weight-lifting attempt
Photo credit: Stoyan Nenov / Reuters

Weight-lifter turned dancer

You probably heard of or read about David Katoatau who danced during the recent Rio Olympics to let the whole world know about his country (Kiribati)’s plight. His somewhat well-crafted moves are shown in the video below.

Unlike the usual victory dances we are used to watching in most Olympics, David danced even after failing at his third and last weightlifting attempt. This must have sounded like the most absurd reaction to 'failure'.

Problem-Induced dance?

It later turned out that the dance was actually for a noble cause. Just last year, David made a passionate appeal through a letter to the nations of the worlds to save his beloved country of Kiribati.

The republic of Kiribati, which constitutes 33 atolls, is ranked by United Nations among the least developed countries of the world, and hailed as the only country in the pacific that spans all the hemispheres – North, South, West and East. The latest data (2015) from World Bank shows that its population is approximately 112, 423 and it continues to grow at an average of 1.8 per cent per year, down from 2.2 per cent in 2008.Due to the dominance of atolls in Kiribati, the ecological and human systems are highly sensitive to any changes in the environment.  The growing population immensely relies on ecosystem services especially those derived from the sea like fishing and tourism, as source of livelihood. The video below summarizes the plight of Kiribati.

How many more dances?

The Pacific Climate Change Science Program 2014 report documented observations and projections for Kiribati; 

• Temperatures will continue to rise and warming is highly likely to hit a record 1.2 degrees by 2030
• In a scenario of increased greenhouse gas emissions, most models project an increase in the long-term average rainfall
• General increase in extreme temperatures, precipitation and drought (medium confidence)
• Increased acidification as a result of the increased concentration of carbon-dioxide in the atmosphere and subsequent warming of the oceans
• Very high confidence for projected rise in sea level especially in the 21st century
• Spatial variations in projected wind-waves

In agreeing with the above projections, Wyett,2014 suggests that an 'escape route' grounded on a number of policy options should be established. The author also proposes planned migration to nearby countries like Australia and New Zealand need, population regulation, preservation of the national heritage, and mobilization of funds.  These suggestions are consisted with Donner and Webber, 2014 's recommendations who underscores the need for periodical review of decisions that are backed up with reliable data, observations and predictions.

"I beg the countries of the world to see what is happening to Kiribati. The simple truth is that we do not have the resources to save ourselves. we will be the first to go. It will be the extinction of a race. Open your eyes and look to the other low lying level islands around the Pacific - they will soon fall with us. "David Katoatau, 2015.